实物期权计算的简化方法研究

A Simplified Approach of Real Options

在商业实践中,投资是不可逆的,但可以延期决策,延期决策是有价值的,传统决策分析方法没有考虑这部分价值增值,因此常常会导致项目价值被低估。实物期权方法将金融期权思想运用于项目评估之中具有重要的意义和作用,实物期权定量分析方法因计算较为繁琐而限制了其在实践中的应用,而将净现值法与实物期权法有机结合起来,探讨实物期权计算的一种简化方法。

Base on the truth that the investment is irreversible and the decision could be postponed, deferring decision-making is of value. Traditional appraisal approaches have missed the incremental value, thus underestimating the project′s value. Real options is an important thinking way and a powerful tool,which consider the value of decision-making deferment. It is very important for project and corporate valuation. The quantitative analytical approaches of real options mainly come from the work of researchers such as Scholes and Merton, but their application are limited because of its complexity in calculation. In this paper, we study a simplified approach of real options which combine the NPV approach with real options closely.