阿拉善黄鼠鼠疫预报的数学模型

A Mathematical Model for Forecasting Epizootic Plaque in Spermophilus dauricus alaschannicus

根据我国阿拉普黄鼠自然疫源地1963～1991年动物鼠疫流行动态资料,利用灰色灾变预测模坚GM(1,1)预测了鼠疫动物病下一个周期可能流行的年份。

Using the collected dynamic data of 1963～1991 in a natural plague focus of Spermophilus dauricusalaschanicus. a grey calamity forecasting model GM(1,1) was modeled to forecast the prevalence of this epizootic plague, and the possible years of the next epizootic/epidemic period were thus given.