城市燃气长期负荷预测模型的灰色方法

Grey System Theory Method of City Gas Long-term Load Prediction

提出利用灰色系统理论 ,建立动态等维灰数递补灰色燃气长期负荷预测模型 ,解决了我国城市燃气长期负荷可用历史数据较少 ,序列的完整性及数据资料的可靠性较低 ,规划设计中往往又需要对未来数年后的用气负荷作出预测的问题。实例预测计算表明 :动态等维灰数递补灰色燃气长期负荷预测模型和方法对城市燃气长期用气负荷的预测具有较好的适应性和较高的精度。

By using Grey system theory,the Grey long-term gas load model of dynamic equal-dimensional Grey-number progressive complement was established.It settles the question of sparse city gas load record data,lower data series' integrity,lower reliable data,and difficult future long-term city gas load prediction in city gas long-term programming.Practical calculations prove that the model has very good adaptability and accuracy.