我国股票市场动态与合理市盈率的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic PER and Rational PER in China Stock Market

本文针对当前市盈率计算时股票价格为即时值而税后利润为静态值的不足提出了改进措施,即通过预测税后利润增长率将税后利润进行相对的动态化,得到动态市盈率。重点探讨了无差异风险收入原则下的合理市盈率的确定,并讨论了决定合理市盈率的变量。最后将上述一系列结果用于分析1995～2000年4月深圳股票市场的合理市盈率状况。

In accordance with the shortcoming of treating the share price as the real time value, while posttax profit as static value in the present calculation of price earnings ratio (PER), the paper puts forward an improving method to obtain PER by predicting the posttax profit growth rate to make posttax profits comparatively dynamic. The paper mainly discusses the definition of rational PER under the principle of indifference risk income and the variables deciding PER. Finally, it analyses the rational PER of Shenzhen stock market from 1995 to 2000 with the above series of results.