我国粮食产量气象分量的周期波动初探

A preliminary study on the periodicity of meteorological components related to crop yield

本文应用功率谱、周期图和方差分析等方法探讨了全国及部分代表省(区)粮食单产中气象分量的中短周期波动。发现各地气象分量的谱分布基本相似,普遍存在4—6年及其倍数的周期波动。同时,各地表现又略有不同,由南往北周期逐渐变长。通过与农业气象热量因子以及粮食产量增减产年历史演变的周期波动的比较,似可初步推理为,热量因子的周期波动影响了气象产量的周期波动,从而导致作物产量的周期演变。这一初步推理为我国粮食产量的气象预测预报的基础研究和实践应用提供了参考依据。

In this paper the midium and short periodic fluctuations of meteorological components related to crop yield in China are discussed by means of spectrum analysis,periodogram and variance analysis. It is shown that the spectral distributions in different parts of the country are basically similar and particularly occur in a period of about 4-6 years and even twice of the period. It could be deduced that the fluctuations of agromete-orological thermal factors influence the periodic fluctuations of the meteo rological components related to crop yield and hence result in periodic variations of crop yield.