南方涛动与我国大尺度季、月气温的关系

The relationship between the SO and monthly or seasonal mean temperature in China

南方涛动与我国月平均气温的相关,在当年2月、4月、9月以正相关为主,9月以后出现持续的负相关。南方涛动与我国季平均气温相关最显著的季节是当年秋季,其次是次年春季。南方涛动与次年长江下游、广东、福建、山东的年平均气温有良好的负相关。这些关系均可在预报中利用。此外,还指出,在我国4、5月,9、10月的大范围气温记录中存在早期识别厄尔尼诺的信号。

It is pointed out that most correlations between the SO and the monthly or seasonal mean temperatures in China are positive in September,February and April and show persistently negative after September in current year. The maximum seasonal correlations occur in the autumn of the current year and in the spring of the next year. The annual mean tempearature in the next year in the lower Changjiang Reaches and Guangdong, Fujian and Shandong Provinces are in close negative relation with the SO.These relations can be used for temperature prediction.In addition,it is also found that early El Nino signals exist in the monthly or seasonal mean temperature records of April, May,September and October.