中国社会化水资源稀缺评价

The Primary Study on Assessing Social Water Scarcity in China

水资源稀缺是我国21世纪可持续发展面临的最主要问题之一,水资源稀缺评价是水资源管理中最基础性的工作。在界定水资源管理阶段、引入社会适应性能力概念的基础上,将水资源稀缺评价问题拓展到了社会经济领域,强调社会资源在水资源稀缺评价中的作用。同时根据计算的社会化水资源稀缺评价指数,对2002年我国各省(市)水文水资源稀缺指数和社会化水资源稀缺指数进行了比较分析。结果表明北京、上海、浙江、广东和广西省由于相对高的社会适应性能力,其社会化水资源稀缺程度指数的相对排序得到了改善;河北、河南、贵州、云南省因相对低的社会适应性能力使其社会化水资源稀缺指数排序有所降低。同时探讨了社会适应性能力对水资源稀缺程度的影响,并指出运用社会资源来适应水资源的稀缺也是水资源可持续开发利用的一种途径。

Based on some discussions on the relationship between environmental capital and economic development, the social adaptive capacity coined by Ohlsson has been introduced. Combined with the classification of water resource management, the authors discussed the interconnection between the natural resource reconstruction and social adaptive capacity. With a view to overcoming water resource scarcity, increased social resources as an alternative way has been emphasized. At the same time, it allows strategic decision-makers to source some effective strategies from political economy system outside the natural resources themselves. To illustrate the effect of social adaptive capacity, a new social resource water scarcity index (SWSI) is developed based on a combination of traditional hydrological indices and our actual assessment index of social adaptability as most readily available proxy for social adaptive capacity. Calculations are made for 31 provinces, 2002. The study demonstrates that the index captures the social impacts of water scarcity more accurately than earlier indices. Finally, with a general concern that traditional technical and economic options for water resource management are no longer adequate for situations of increasing water scarcity. We pinpoint that there is a need to develop policy options to stimulate adaptive processes and strengthen social resources capacity, and consider and apply alternative multidisciplinary options based on critical social resource factors.