基于季节ARIMA模型的GSM话务量建模和预报

Modeling and Predicting Wirless GSM Traffic on the Seasonal ARIMA Model

本文用季节模型对天津移动GSM网的话务量进行了建模分析和预报,研究表明用季节模型对移动话务量进行建模分析和预报是可行的,同时在文中我们还给出了带两个周期季ARIMA模型的一般表达式,并用这种带多个周期的模型对实际的网络业务进行了建模和预报。

Seasonal ARIMA model is a good traffic model capable of capturing the behavior of a network traffic stream. In this paper, we give a general expression of seasonal ARIMA models with two periodicities and provide procedures to model and to predict traffic using seasonal ARIMA models. Our feasibility-study experiments showed that seasonal ARIMA models could be used to model and to predict actual wireless traffic such as GSM traffic in China.