雷达估测降雨与水文模型的耦合在洪水预报中的应用

Coupling of weather radar rainfall data with hydrological model and its application to flood forecasting

尝试将雷达降雨数据作为水文模型的输入用于洪水预报中.流域面上的降雨分布是不均匀的,比较雨量计和雷达两种方式估测的降雨场分布,后者更接近于实际情况.从流域地形分布来看也证实了这一点.从实时洪水预报的角度出发,选择进行校准雷达降雨的雨量站个数与水情部门采用的报汛站的个数接近.由于雷达估测的降雨数据为分布式的降雨数据,需要采用分布式的水文模型.结合淮河史灌河流域蒋家集站进行洪水预报,预报结果表明,雷达测雨在洪水预报中具有广泛的应用前景.

A study was made on the coupling of weather radar rainfall data with the hydrological model for flood forecasting. The comparison of the rainfall distributions on river basins evaluated by precipitation gauges and the weather radar rainfall estimate technique shows that the result from the latter method is more close to the reality, which accords with the landform of river basins. To meet the requirement of real-time flood prediction, the Kalman filter was adopted for correction of the weather radar rainfall data, and the number of rainfall stations selected was the same as that of the flood prediction stations arranged by the water information department. In consideration of the fact that the weather radar rainfall data are of distributed characteristics, the distributed hydrological model was adopted. The flood forecasting performed for the Jiangjiaji Station of the Shiguanhe catchment of the Huaihe River shows that the weather radar rainfall estimate technique has wide scope of application.