我国货币政策传导过程中的“漏斗”效应与“黑洞”效应——揭开1998年后我国货币供给“渗漏”之谜

The “Funnel” Effect and The “Collapsar” Effect in Transmission of China's Monetary Policy

本文讨论了近年来我国“积极的”货币政策效果不佳的主要原因 ,认为“积极的”货币政策在向实体经济传导过程中出现了货币“渗漏” ,大量货币不是有效地作用于生产、流通和消费等实体经济环节 ,而是“渗漏”到资本市场“漏斗”和银行体系“黑洞” ,产生了削弱我国货币政策有效性的“漏斗”效应和“黑洞”效应。它们构成了实现货币政策目标的反制力量 ,使持续 5年多的“积极的”货币政策未能有效地推动经济增长。为改善我国货币政策的有效性 ,就必须针对货币政策传导的“漏斗”效应与“黑洞”效应采取有效措施 ,从而逐步抑制货币供给“渗漏”。

This paper has discussed the main reason of the dissatisfaction under the “positive” monetary policy in China in recent years, and suggests that there appears an phenomenon of monetary “leakage” when“positive” monetary policy is implemented to boost the growth of substantial economy. A lot of money supposed to act on the substantial economic sectors such as production, circulation and consumption has leaked into “funnel” of stock market and “collapsar” of banking industry. This have produced “ funnel ” effect and “ collapsar ” effect, which counteract the effective transmission of “positive”monetary policy. To improve the efficiency of China's monetary policy, the urgent task is to take the effective measure to hold “ funnel ” effect and “ collapsar ” effect.