摘要
A model intercomparison in terms of surface air temperature annual cycle amplitude-phase characteristics (SAT AC APC) is performed. The models included in the intercomparison belong to two groups: five atmospheric models with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice cover and four coupled models forced by the atmospheric abundances of anthropogenic constituents (in total six coupled model simulations). Over land, the models, simulating higher than observed time averaged SAT, also tend to simulate smaller than observed amplitude of its annual and semiannual harmonics and (outside the Tropics) later-than-observed spring and autumn moments. The models with larger (smaller) time averaged amplitudes of annual and semiannual harmonics also tend to simulate larger (smaller) interannual standard deviations. Over the oceans, the coupled models with larger interannual standard deviations of annual mean SAT tend to simulate larger interannual standard deviations of both annual and semiannual SAT harmonics amplitudes. Most model errors are located in the belts 60°–70°N and 60°–70°S and over Antarctica. These errors are larger for those coupled models which do not employ dynamical modules for sea ice. No systematic differences are found in the simulated time averaged fields of the surface air temperature annual cycle characteristics for atmospheric models on one hand and for the coupled models on the other. But the coupled models generally simulate interannual variability of SAT AC APC better than the atmospheric models (which tend to underestimate it). For the coupled models, the results are not very sensitive to the choice of the particular scenario of anthropogenic forcing. There is a strong linear positive relationship between the model simulated time averaged semiannual SAT harmonics amplitude and interannual standard deviation of annual mean SAT. It is stronger over the tropical oceans and is weaker in the extratropics. In the tropical oceanic areas, it is stronger for the coupled than for the atmospheric models.
A model intercomparison in terms of surface air temperature annual cycle amplitude-phase characteristics (SAT AC APC) is performed. The models included in the intercomparison belong to two groups: five atmospheric models with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice cover and four coupled models forced by the atmospheric abundances of anthropogenic constituents (in total six coupled model simulations). Over land, the models, simulating higher than observed time averaged SAT, also tend to simulate smaller than observed amplitude of its annual and semiannual harmonics and (outside the Tropics) later-than-observed spring and autumn moments. The models with larger (smaller) time averaged amplitudes of annual and semiannual harmonics also tend to simulate larger (smaller) interannual standard deviations. Over the oceans, the coupled models with larger interannual standard deviations of annual mean SAT tend to simulate larger interannual standard deviations of both annual and semiannual SAT harmonics amplitudes. Most model errors are located in the belts 60°–70°N and 60°–70°S and over Antarctica. These errors are larger for those coupled models which do not employ dynamical modules for sea ice. No systematic differences are found in the simulated time averaged fields of the surface air temperature annual cycle characteristics for atmospheric models on one hand and for the coupled models on the other. But the coupled models generally simulate interannual variability of SAT AC APC better than the atmospheric models (which tend to underestimate it). For the coupled models, the results are not very sensitive to the choice of the particular scenario of anthropogenic forcing. There is a strong linear positive relationship between the model simulated time averaged semiannual SAT harmonics amplitude and interannual standard deviation of annual mean SAT. It is stronger over the tropical oceans and is weaker in the extratropics. In the tropical oceanic areas, it is stronger for the coupled than for the atmospheric models.
