重庆市主城区近百余年水资源变化及评估

THE VARIATIONS AND ASSESSMENT OF THE WATER RESOURCES IN CHONGQING CITY DURING THE PAST 100 YEARS PLUS

利用重庆市主城区月平均气温及降水资料,讨论该地区近百余年水资源量的年际及年代际的变化特征并对其进行了评估,最后对未来10年重庆主城区水资源量进行了预测和评估。结果表明,从1892～2002年共111年重庆主城区年水资源量略有增多的趋势,其变化主要经历了4个阶段;近几年水资源量处于增强的偏丰期;未来10年重庆主城区水资源量可能有偏枯的趋势。

Based on the monthly mean temperature and precipitation data during the past 100 years plus in Chongqing city the interannual and interdecadal variation features of water resources have been analyzed. And the magnitude of water resources have been assessed, too. By using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Mean Generating Function (MGF) methods a BP neural network multi-step prediction model has been formulated probably. The prediction results show that during the future 10 years the water resources in Chongqing city will be descending.