经济快速发展地区农业土地利用变化驱动机制研究——以无锡市东亭镇、安镇镇和羊尖镇为例

ON THE MECHANISM OF AGRICULTURAL LAND USE CHANGE IN THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING AREA——A CASE STUDY OF DONGTING TOWN,ANZHEN TOWN AND YANGJIAN TOWN OF WUXI CITY

以长江三角洲地区无锡市东亭镇、安镇镇和羊尖镇为例,通过应用德尔菲法和主成分分析法选择农地利用变化影响因素的基础上,构建了区域农业土地利用变化的驱动模型,并据此着重分析了区域农地数量变化与区域经济发展、城市化水平、农业集约化、城市(上海市)辐射力以及耕地保护政策变化之间的相互关系。研究结果表明,区域农业土地利用变化是上述因素综合作用的结果,并且在不同的乡镇,农地数量变化的驱动因素是有所差异的,而且区域社会经济发展的不同时期,各驱动因素的重要程度也是动态变化的。最后,作者就经济快速发展地区农业土地可持续利用管理提出若干政策建议,合理保护农地尤其是耕地资源;重视耕地质量占补平衡;依据农业产业发展态势,积极调整农地利用结构;推进非农产业升级,合理控制非农用地规模;进一步完善土地利用的经济约束机制和土地利用决策体系;加强区域合作,避免产业结构的趋同导致的土地利用结构的趋同;促进产业科技进步,提高土地利用占用效率。

Taking three elected towns, Dongting town, Anzhen town and Yangjian town of Wuxi city in the Yangtze River delta, as the case study, this paper aims at make a driving model of regional agricultural land use change in rapidly developing area. The methods of Delphi and main composing analysis have been used to analyze the driving factors causing agricultural land use change. According to this model, the authors mainly analyze the relationship between quantity of regional agricultural land use change and regional economy development, urbanization level, agriculture intensity, radiation force from the neighbor city (Shanghai city) and policy change of farmland protection. The result shows that regional agricultural land use change is affected synthetically by all the above factors and there is a difference among driving factors of agricultural land quantity change in different town, and each drive factor changes dynamically during the different period of economic development. Finally, some policy suggestions about the sustainable Agricultural land use and management in rapidly developing area are put forward to as following:①protecting the agricultural land rationally (especially farmland resource);②paying most attention to the balance of the occupation and the compensation of farmland quality;③adjusting the structure of agricultural land use actively in light of the trend of agricultural sector development;④pushing forward regional economic sector upgrading and controling the scale of agricultural land use;⑤further improving the economic restrain system and policy decision system of land use;⑥enhancing the regional cooperation and avoiding the similarity of the industry structure and the land use structure;⑦promoting the progress of the industrial technology and increasing the efficiency of land use occupation.