两种主要森林害虫发生面积预报的初步研究

Preliminary Study of Occurrence Area Prediction of 2 kinds of Main Forest Injurious Insects

应用马尔可夫链和灰色系统GM (1,1)预测模型对宁化县 2种主要森林害虫—马尾松毛虫和黄脊竹蝗的年度发生面积进行了分析和预测。结果表明 :马尔可夫链对马尾松毛虫和黄脊竹蝗发生面积预测效果较好 ,灰色系统GM (1,1)预测模型对马尾松毛虫发生面积预测效果较好 。

The results showed that Dendrolimus punctatus and Ceracris kiangsu occurrence area prediction effect was relatively good with Markov chain,D.punctatus occurrence area prediction GM(1,1) effect was relatively good with the grey system prediction model,whereas C.kiangsu occurrence area prediction effect was relatively poor with the grey system GM(1,1) prediction model.