原油价格对中国物价的影响

Crude Oil Price Effects on China's Price Level

鉴于投入产出表记录和反映了全社会各部门的经济活动和相关关系,本文首先利用中国国家统计局1997年124个部门的投入产出表,分析了原油价格上涨对中国物价的影响。结果表明,如果原油价格上涨100%,中国的批发价格指数将上涨6.2%,消费者物价指数将上涨2.2%。继而对2000年的投入产出表进行计算,结果显示,该两项指标已分别上升至12.1%和4.4%。这说明中国抗高油价的能力在减弱。分析还表明,中国受油价上涨影响最大的部门是石油制品业,其物价将上涨58.9%,其次是与运输有关的部门,特别是水上客运业(16.4%)和水上货运业(15.3%)。除了详细考察油价对中国物价的影响之外,还从时间上(纵向)和从国际上(横向)分析了油价影响程度的变化、不同点及其原因。通过对亚洲主要国家的分析比较得出,日本的抗高油价能力最强,中国的抗高油价能力正在逐步减弱,并已接近韩国和东南亚等国的水平。

Taking advantage of the inherent characteristics that the Input- Output Table records and reflects the activities of, and relationships among social sectors, this paper, first based on the China's 124 sectors' Input-Output Table 1997, analyzes the crude oil price impacts in 1997. Analysis results show that, if the crude oil price increases by 100%, China's WPI will increase by 6.2% and CPI by 2.2%. However, analysis based on the Input-Output table 2000 shows that WPI and CPI will increase by 12.1% and 4.4%, respectively, a fact that China's anti-high crude oil price ability (AHCOPA) is weakening. Further analysis shows that, in China, the most highly influenced sector is the refinery sector, whose price will increase by 58.9%, followed by transport related sectors, especially the Water Passenger Transport (16.4%) and Water Cargo Transport (15.3%). Historical analysis and international comparisons are also conducted to reveal changes of impacts and their reasons. Analysis results on major Asian countries shows that Japan is most powerful in AHCOPA, while China is getting weak in AHCOPA and approaching South Korea and Southeast Asian countries.