江苏北部雾的分析和预报系统

AN ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SYSTEM OF FOG IN NORTH JIANGSU PROVINCE

本文利用1959—1989年雾的资料,分析了江苏北部雾的气候特征和影响的主要天气系统;运用天气型下找指标,MOS预报等方法,研究建立了冬半年各月雾的预报工具。並编制了具有一定特色的预报业务系统,采用动态调整手段,使预报方程随资料的增加而不断优化。经一年的实际使用,雾的预报概括率达90％,获得预期的效果。

In this papen the climate feature of fog and main weather system in north Jiangsu is analysed based on the data of 1959-1989. Applying weather type indices. MOS and so on, a forecsat tool of the fog in winter is formulated. We set up an operational system of forecast with certain features, and adopt the means of dynamic adjustment. The success rate has reached 90% daring the one year of experimental period,