基于重构相空间充填体变形规律的灰色预测研究

Research on grey prediction of deformation laws in backfill based on phase space reconstruction

尾砂胶结充填体是非线性力学介质 ,其变形是能量耗散的复杂过程 ,必须研究其内在变形规律 ,才能正确预测采矿过程中充填体的稳定性。对不同配比的尾砂胶结充填体进行力学试验 ,得出了其应力 -应变规律 ,对安庆铜矿高阶段充填体变形进行了监测。采用自适应滤波原理 ,研究基于重构相空间的测量数据去噪处理方法。用灰色理论研究充填体变形在相空间中相点距离的演变规律 ,建立了重构相空间的灰色预测模型。为减小预测误差 ,对预测结果采用残差模型修正。应用建立的模型 ,对安庆铜矿高阶段充填体变形进行分析 ,确定了采场合理回采周期。结果表明 ,充填体变形具有非线性混沌特性 ,不同配比的充填体表现出不同的非线性动力学行为 。

The present paper intends to introduce the authors' research on the stress-strain laws of cemented tailings in different cement ratios to tailings through experimentation with monitoring the deformations of high backfill in Anqing Copper Mine production practice. The research is done to find a method, which aims to remove the noise from monitored data in reconstructive phase space by following the principle of adaptive filter. Cemented tailings backfill is by nature a nonlinear mechanical medium, and its deformation is a complex process of energy dissipation. Therefore, it is necessary to study the intrinsic laws of deformation, and predict the stability of backfill exactly during the mining practice. Analyzing the change laws of distance in phase space to deformation in backfill, a prediction model is built based on phase space reconstruction with gray theory. In order to reduce the prediction errors, the prediction model has to be improved with an amended model of error. Using the model proposed in this paper, we have analyzed the deformations in high backfill in the mine, to solve the reliable mining period. The research results also show that the deformations in backfill appear the random feature. However, in spite of the existence of different nonlinear dynamical characters in the backfill to different ratios of cement to tailings, the laws of deformation can still be well demonstrated by the method of reconstructive phase space. Comparing the predicted results with the monitoring data, they prove to be well coincided. The lower is the ratios of cement to tailings in backfill, the higher is the dimension of dynamic system in phase space to the time series of deformation. And in turn, the lower is strength of backfill, the more complex is the process of Phase Space Reconstruction.