高速公路交通生成预测的改进灰色马尔可夫模型

Improved Gray-Markov Forecast Models for Expressway Traffic Generation

高速公路交通生成预测是进行高速公路网规划不可缺少的环节,传统的预测方法需要考虑人口、土地利用等因素,过程显得极为复杂。而灰色预测模型可以在基础资料缺乏的条件下可建立模型进行预测,但对于高速公路交通生成量这一类随机性、波动性较大的数据,使得拟合较差,预测精度降低。针对这些不足进行改进,提出改进的灰色马尔可夫预测方法。最后将该预测模型应用于高速公路网规划交通生成预测中,取得了良好的效果。

Expressway traffic generation is an essencial part in expressway network planning.Population,land use,etc are required to be considered in traditional forecasting method,the process is very complex.Gray Forecast Models can be used to establish models to forecast with less data.Owing to the randomness and fluctuation of the data from expressway traffic genration the data fitting is difficult with low precision.This paper improves the model by considering these factors,and brings forward improved Gray-Markov forecast models.In the end of this paper,the forecast model is applied in expressway traffic generation,which gets good result.