基于遥感估产和农业统计的粮食供需平衡模型研究

A Short-term Model of Grain Supply-Demand Balance Based on Remote Sensing for Crop Monitoring and Agriculture Statistical Data

提出了适用于年内动态平衡的中国粮食供需平衡模型 ,利用遥感估产数据和统计数据 ,对中国世纪之交的粮食供需平衡的现状进行研究。结果表明文中的模型是合理可行的 ,同时通过比较基于遥感估算产量和基于统计产量计算的粮食供需平衡状况结果 ,表明遥感估产信息可以有效提高粮食供需平衡分析的可靠性和时效性 ,遥感估产应作为中国区域粮食供需平衡监测的重要信息源纳入国家粮食宏观管理的日常工作。通过对中国 1999— 2 0 0 2年粮食供需状况的计算分析 ,认为世纪之交中国年内粮食的供需大致平衡 ,但因为 2 0世纪末政府和农户存粮数量较高 ,近 3年来农户库存持续下降 ,造成粮食市场供大于求的局面。因此 ,对于中国粮食的供需平衡面临的问题决不能掉以轻心。

In China, the technology of remote sensing for crop monitoring is already mature. It can provide an important data source, just as crop production, for monitoring the national grain supply and demand balance. Also, it can monitor crop growth in crop life. The data from the technology not only has spatiality and multi-type, but also is timelier than the agriculture statistical data, especially for monitoring the annual or seasonal grain supply and demand balance. Therefore, the technology should be integrated into the operational system of national grain management. In this paper, firstly, a short-term model for the national grain supply-demand balance, which can be applying to predict grain balance before the end of year, was brought forward. Then, applying the results of remote sensing and statistical data in the model constructed, the authors studied grain supply-demand balance in China at the turning point of the century. By comparing the two results derived from remote sensing monitoring and agriculture statistical data, the authors believed that the information of remote sensing monitoring could be applied to analyze grain supply-demand balance, while the reliability can be improved and periodicity can be shortened. Hence, the results of remote sensing monitoring should be taken as one of the most important data sources to monitor grain supply-demand balance by the departments of regulating and controlling grain. Moreover, by calculating and analyzing the results of China's grain supply-demand balance during 1999—2002. It was Suggested that China's grain at the turning point of the century was approximately balanceable. But because the grain stocks change of government and farmer household was very large at the end of the last century, moreover, with the descending farmer household's grain stock in recent three years, it was formed that the surplus complexion of grain in market, which should be valued and taken some measures timely by the government during the process of adjusting the agricultural structure.