ENSO对青藏铁路沿线气温和地温的影响及其预测

Impact of ENSO on Air Temperature and Ground Temperatureand Its Forecast along the Qinghai-Tibetan Railway

研究了天文因素对近500a来厄尔尼诺事件的影响,分析了近50a来ENSO事件与青藏铁路沿线气温地温的关系.结果表明:年平均气温和年平均最高气温,春季平均最高气温、夏季平均最低气温和秋季平均最低气温,在ElNi no年偏低;而在LaNi na年则偏高.0cm年平均最低地温、秋季平均最低地温和冬季平均最低地温,在ElNi no年偏低;而在LaNi na年则偏高.ENSO事件对从5cm及其以下的地温没有明显影响.厄尔尼诺事件有准60a和准19a周期,其可能是对天体运动的响应.

Impact of astronomical factor on ENSO events in the past 500 years and the possible relationship of El Nio and air temperature and ground temperature in the past 50 years are investigated along the Qinghai-Tibetan Railway. It is revealed that in El Nio years, annual mean temperature, mean annual maximum temperature, mean spring maximum temperature, mean minimum temperatures in the summer and autumn will decrease. But in La Nia years the aforesaid changes will be adverse. Mean annual minimum ground temperature and mean minimum ground surface temperature in the autumn and winter is similar to what above-mentioned. There is no confident connection of ENSO events and ground temperature at the depth below 5 cm. There are quisai-60-year and quisai-19-year periods in El Nio events. Its may be attributed to astronomical factor.