粮食产量预测的因子处理和建模方法

Factor Disposal and Modeling Method of Foodstuff Yield Prediction

从粮食产量统计预测法模型的基本模式 :y =yt+yw+△y出发介绍了粮食产量预测因子的选择 ,因子相关和平稳性检验 ,因子膨化和线性化处理 ,趋势因子和趋势产量的分离 ,趋势产量的模拟 ,趋势产量的外延 ,波动产量的预测 ,预测误差的修正 ,多个预测结果的综合集成的主要数学模型、算法及其部分推导过程。文中所涉及的数学模型和算法均经过实际应用检验证明其行之有效 ,这些数学模型和算法对其它预测问题亦有借鉴作用。

Based on the pattern of statistic pr ed iction of foodstuff yield :y=y t+y w+△y,this paper introduced the major mathematic models of synthetic prediction of foodstuff yield, including choice o f factors, factors correlation and steady test; factorsexpandedand linearization disposal; separationof trend factors and trend yield; sim ulation of trend yield; extension of trend yield; prediction of fluctuating yield; revision of predicting errors; mathematic disposal and process of dedu ction , multi-result's synthetic integration. The mathematic models and arithme tic in this paper have been tested in practice and proved effective. The methods are also helpful in other model predictions.