试论新开发旅游区的游客量预测分析

ON FORECAST OF TOURIST NUMBER IN NEW DEVELOPMENT TOUR DISTRICT

以神木县为例,探讨了在新开发旅游区的游客预测。由于缺乏长期历史数据,难以进行游客量预测。根据神木县实际情况,从定性和定量分析入手,采用引力模型、口粒子模型等方法进行预测,对公式中的变量及其参数采取类似项目比较法或专家打分等方法进行修正,最后得出神木县游客量,为同类地区旅游规划中游客量预测提供了参考。

When we carrying on resources development and planning in new developing tour district, a situation that few basic data to the analysis and research of the market is often faced, these would especially bring much difficulties to forecast its tourist numbers. So, it is sure that the quantitative forecast method would be taken on the basis of analysing the on-the-spot survey materials. While models to calculate are quoted, they cannot be applied mechanically, and must be revised by various kinds of parameters to fit the local situation. In the tourist planning of new development tour district in Shenmu County, the number of tourists must be forecasted as the latest recorded data are few. Shenmu County Tourism Bureau was established in the last year, so everything of tourist development has been waiting to be done. The materials of tourism have not been mostly collected and put in order. A new round of extensive constructions of scenic spots, because of the few data of earlier stage, makes it difficult to be suited to the needs of the new situation. By 2002, Shenmu County has been developed and opened only two scenic spots, most scenic spots has been at under construction. With the implementation of the great development strategy of the West and the rapid development of the domestic tourist market, the enthusiasm of promoting the West's tourism great development has been run higher. Shenmu County's scenic spot of tourism have been developed fast, and its tourist activities have been swiftly popularity, and reception condition and service quality can be raised further, and the region range of visitor's market will be also expanded rapidly. The existing visitor's market cannot represent its future market development; its historical data cannot also be regarded as the foundation of visitor number's forecast in Shenmu County. In addition, because questionnaire is rather limited, its result can be reference only to calculate total visitor amount .If tourist number is forecasted only according to the data of existing tourist spots, the result of its quantitative analysis must be defective and may be also distorted. So, some other prediction methods are needed. The classical model --Gravitation Model is chosen in the paper, another forecast model is Particle Model. These models are adopted on the basis of facts of variables and parameters in the formula of Shenmu County 's data and material to be modified by item compare and expert graded means. The future amount of Shenmu County 's tourists has been got finally. Accordingly, the reference for similar region's tourist number and planning are offered.