企业财务报表分析中的模糊数学方法研究

Analysis of Financial Statement Using Fuzzy Methods

财务报表分析无论对于企业自身还是银行、政府监管部门和中介机构都是至关重要的。从财务报表数据的模糊性与传统分析方法的主观性问题出发,利用模糊多项式时间序列模型以及基于模糊聚类的模糊预测模型,进行财务报表的趋势分析和综合分析。实证研究表明,模型的精度较高,利用上述模型进行财务报表分析符合财务数据本身的特性,与已有文献相比,较好地解决了模糊参数的估计问题和模糊聚类模型的动态预测问题,将其应用于企业财务报表分析的实践是有一定实用价值的。

Analysis of financial statement is one of the most important matters not only to corporate itself but also to intermediary organs, commercial banks and related government departments. In this paper, based on fuzziness of financial data and subjectivity of existing research methods, fuzzy multinomial time series model, fuzzy clustering and forecasting model are presented to financial statement sequence and comprehensive analyzing through samples choosing from listing corporations. Case study shows that these models are fit for solving these problems and the precision of testing are satisfying. So, it is practicable and reasonable to apply these methods to financial statement analyzing.