2004年我国经济运行特征和未来趋势

The Characteristics of China's Economic Operation in 2004 and Its Tendency in the Future

20 0 4年是我国经济进入轻波周期阶段以来一个经济增速较高的年份。在未来时期 ,将主要是以局部过热为起点开始降温 ,而且恢复到正常状态所需要的时间较过去而言要短得多 ,但具体趋势存在三种可能性 :“软着陆” ;经济增速在有了一定的下降以后又出现反弹 ,使得“软着陆”夭折 ;通货紧缩。当前 ,调控目标方面 ,在降低经济增速的同时 ,要着力抑制通胀率的攀升和加强国际收支的调控 ;调控手段方面 ,要尽可能多用经济手段和法律手段 ;客观调控政策方面 ,在运用财政政策的同时 ,要更加重视货币政策的作用。

China's economy in 2004 has entered a year of relatively high economic growth rate. Starting from over-heated areas, China's economy is expected to cool down in future. Compared with the past, it will take less time for the economy to recover to the normal state. There are three possible tendencies for this economic adjustment: softlanding; failure of softlanding due to the economic rebound following the relative decrease in the growth rate; deflation. Currently, efforts must be made to curb the rise in inflation rate and strengthen the control over balance of international payments while lowering economic growth rate.