国际权势格局的当今变动与相关的理论、历史和现实思考

The Current Change of International Power Structure:With Related Thinking in Terms of Theory,History and Reality

主要出于几方面的基本原因,“ 9·11”事件以来美国的权势有了最新的更进一步增长,其霸权性优势的支配或严重影响范围出现了新的跃进式扩展,无论就地理范围还是就问题领域来说都是如此。这一事态以差不多空前的尖锐程度,提出了一个头等重要的问题,那就是在可以明确预见的一个未来时期里,能否在世界政治总体及其各主要局部上真正成功地制衡美国的过大优势和强权政治?历史实例考察和理论分析都提示,答案是否定的。在此情况下,中国不要“当头”,不要冒失,而需要认真考虑、试验、采纳和优化总体制衡以外的大战略选择。与此同时,中国必须发展改革,加强国力,后一方面特别包括下决心全面和大幅度地改善和建设军事力量。我们在这两方面需要做的一切,除了其他根本性的目的以外,是为了准备迎接在较长远的未来必定会到来的总体制衡的大历史时机。

Due to several fundamental causes, the U. S. power has grown remarkably further most recently since theSeptember 11th terrorist attack,with a new leap of the scope of control or great influence by its hegemonic preponder-ance,both in terms of geographical extent and issue areas. This development has raised a vitally important question in analmost extraordinarily acute degree:Can,in the clearly predictable future,the extravagant preponderance and the macht-politik of the United States be successfully balanced in the over-all world politics and its major component categories? Anegative answer is suggested by both historical case studies and theoretical analysis. Under this circumstance, Chinashould not take a too high profile and act rashly,but need to think out,design,test,adopt and optimize as grand strategysome appropriate alternative to the general balancing against U. S. preponderance. At the same time,China must advancereforms in all fronts and build up overall national strength. in the later respect making up mind especially to improve andbuild up military forces,comprehensively. What we have to do in both of these fields is for the purpose,in addition toother essential aims,of preparing us,or even together with the next generation,being ready to welcome the great histori-cal moment of effective general balancing that will necessarily come sooner or later in the long-term future.