海平面上升对广州高水位的影响

THE EFFECT OF THE SEA LEVEL RISING ON THE HIGHWATER MARK IN GUANGZHOU

本文分析了广州高水位的变化趋势、高水位灾害的情况及其主要形成因素,预测1990～2040年珠江口沿岸海平面的上升速率为1.26cm/a;到2040年,广州水道的高水位将达到(3.40±0.02)m,并用其低值(3.0m水位)预估广州市区受淹面积为582km^2,经济损失将达151.82亿元。

Guangzhou is situated in the section of mixsing flood and tidewater action in the Zhujiang river—mouth.Its terrain is low and flat with an elevation of 2.0m below the Zhujiang Base Le- vel in the plain area.The effect of the sea level rising will be extremely clear to Guangzhou City. In the last decades,the water mark in Guangzhou has tended to rise,that has brought serious ef- fect on city traffic,production and people's daily life.The change tendency is caused mainly by river flow from the upper reaches and sea tide of the lower reaches as well as wind,earth subsi- dence,sea level rising and topographic change of river network.It is predicted that from 1990 to 2040,the mean rate of sea level rising near the zhujiang river—mouth will be 1.1 cm/a and the rate of highwater mark rising in Guangzhou will be 1.26 cm/a,and the value of highwater mark will attain to 3.20±0.20m by 2040.When the water level attains to 3.0m,the inundated acreage will be calculated at 582km^2,and the losses in economy at 15 182 million Renminbi yuan in Guangzhou.