黄河中游1500年水旱序列的历史检验与黄河大洪水

Historical Testing of the 1500 Years Chronological Series of Water and Drought of the Middle Yellow River and the Major Floods

1981年在黄河中游地区建立了国内第一个1500年的历史气候长序列。此后12年的降雨变化证明,该序列指出的水旱变化规律是符合实际的。据此结合最新研究的全球变化背景,也说明本世纪90年代,尤其是90年代后期,黄河中游可能是个更为湿润时期,在多种全球变化影响因素相叠加的1997年前后,黄河流域有发生大洪水的可能。

In 1981,the first long-term chronological series of historical climates of 1500 years in China was es-tablished in the middle Yellow River regions.Rainfall variation in the following 12 years had proved thatthe law of water and drought variation put forward by the chronological series accorded with the practicalsituation.According to the chronological series and the latest research achievements of global climate chang-ing background,it is showed that the 1990s especially the late 1990s might be more humid in the middleYellow River.Due to complicated factors affecting global change,there might be a major flood taking placein the Yellow River Valley around 1997.