土壤水分模拟与墒情预报模型研究进展

Advances in Soil Moisture Simulation and Forecasting Models

土壤墒情预报是在土壤水分模拟模型的基础上对农田耕作层土壤水分的增长和消退程度所进行的预报。墒情预报是灌溉预报的基础 ,对于水资源短缺条件下农田水分的合理调控具有重要意义。墒情预报模型可以分为确定性模型与随机性模型两大类 ,其中确定性模型包括水量平衡模型、土壤 -植物 -大气连续体 (SPAC)水分传输模型、SPAC水热耦合传输模型等 ,随机性模型包括数理统计模型 (包括回归模型、时间序列模型、人工神经网络模型等 )、随机水量平衡模型与随机土壤水动力学模型等。本文对各类墒情预报模型进行比较 。

Soil moisture forecast is the forecast of increment and depletion of field soil moisture based on soil water simulation models. It is the basis for irrigation forecasting and is important for the rational regulation of field water. The variation of soil moisture can be predicted with deterministic models or stochastic models. Deterministic models include soil water balance model, model of water transfer in soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC), model of simultaneous water and heat transfer in SPAC, etc. Stochastic models include statistical model (regression model, time series analysis model, artificial neural network model etc.), stochastic soil water balance model and stochastic soil water dynamics model etc. Main models for soil moisture simulation and forecast were compared, and the prospect was presented.