矿产资源消费周期理论与中国能源消费的时空效应分析

The Life Cycle Theory of Mineral Resource Consumption and Analysis of Space-time Effect of Energy Consumption of China

作为国家生存与发展的重要物质基础,能源一直是 人类关注的热点。根据矿产资源消费周期理论分析了中国 大规模工业化以来能源消费变化及其时间和空间效应,结果 表明:尽管中国能源生产建设取得了巨大的成就,一次能源 消费结构有了很大的改善,但在今后一段时间内中国能源消 费总量还会持续增长;能源消费的时间效应分析表明,与发 达国家相同,由于大规模技术、产品和管理引进所产生的巨 大节能效果及能源消费结构演进的加快,中国能源消费强度 呈现明显的倒"U"字型;在空间效应方面,尽管中国始终在 致力于提高本国能源的自给水平,但是高速发展的社会经济 却对有限的资源基础提出了越来越大的挑战。

Energy, being as a material base of subsistence and development for a nation, is paid human attention to all along. Based on the Life Cycle Assessment of Mineral Resource Consumption, it is analyzed in this paper that the change of energy consumption and its space and time effects since large-scale industrialization in China. The results indicate that: although China has made great progress in the construction and production of energy and the consumption structure of primary energy has improved greatly, the energy consumption of China will keep a continued growth for the period ahead; the time effect analysis of energy consumption indicates that, being same to developed country, because the large energy saving effect brought about by the large-scale introduction of advanced technology, products and management, and the quickened evolution of consumption structure of energy, the time-intensity curve of China's energy consumption apparently presents the shape of inverted 'U'; the space effect analysis indicates that although China works for increasing energy self-supporting level of energy all the time, the high speed development of social economy brings about the more and more great challenge for the limited resources base.