钱塘江河口稳定性的灰色突变分析

Grey-catastrophe analysis on stability of fluvial process in Qiantangjiang Estuary

基于灰色理论 ,探讨了河口稳定性分析的灰色尖点突变模型 ,并以钱塘江河口的实测资料进行了运用分析 ,结果表明 :Δ =0是河床突变失稳的重要判据 ,Δ值的大小可以作为河床演化状态与临界失稳状态的距离 ,可作为一个具有物理意义的前兆指标。

In this paper, the author analyzes the problem on the stability of fluvial processes in Qiantang Estuary with grey theory and catastrophe theory. The grey-catastrophe models are developed based on time series and gain satisfying result with practical examples.