大国政府间的汇率博弈——中美巨额贸易差额下的人民币汇率问题研究

The Game Between Governments of China and USA on Foreign Exchange Rates-Research on the Exchange Rate of RMB under the Large Sino-American Trade Gaps

从中美两国博弈的角度来看,美国会迫使人民币升值来解决两国间长期存在的巨额贸易差额。在本文的研究中,美国效用期望值最大时的最优升值率介于0和茁之间,中国的最优选择是允许人民币升值,但最优升值率为茁/2。在人民币升值后,如果美国仍进行报复,中国的最优选择是进行反报复,并可通过合理选择报复对象以实现最优。

From the view of the game, American Government would resolve the issue of large trade deficit from China by forcing Chinese RMB appreciation. Fo r USA, in this paper, the rate of Chinese RMB appreciation will be between zero and ?茁. For China, the best choice is to face the fact of RMB appreciation, but the optimum rate of appreciation will be ?茁/2. After RMB appreciation, China c an adopt retaliatory measures if USA still nurse thoughts of revenge.