中国肝癌发病水平的估算及分析

An Evaluation on Incident Cases of Liver Cancer in China

[目的]对包括香港及台湾在内的中国肝癌发病水平进行估计并作分析,为肝癌研究提供基础资料.[方法]根据Ni=Ii·Pi的算式,采用资料合并的方法,用全国14个癌症登记处(北京、天津、上海、武汉、哈尔滨、磁县、林州、启东、嘉善、扶绥、长乐、临朐,香港及台湾)提供的癌症登记处的年龄别发病率(Ⅰ)及人口数(Pi)估计各登记处的年龄别发病数(Ni);根据各登记处的发病数汇总得到全国肝癌年龄别发病率的样本率;根据样本率与全国第五次人口普查数及年龄构成得到各年龄组发病的估计数.[结果]全国14个登记处合计的发病率为30.3/10万,肝癌发病的男女性比例为2.85:1;肝癌占所有癌症的13.13%,居第3位;大陆13个登记处(包括香港,台湾除外)的发病率为24.6/10万.根据全国第5次人口普查资料,用总发病率估计的全国(包括台湾)2000年肝癌发病数为34.7万人.用年龄别发病率估计的发病数为26.3万人.[结论]考虑'高估'及'遗漏'的因素,估计2000年中国大陆的肝癌发病在28万例左右,全国的肝癌发病水平可能为29万例(范围在26万～32万之间),其中男性为21.5万例,女性为7.5万例.

To estimate the national incidence of liver cancer in China by using cancer registry data and to provide the data for liver cancer research.Age-specific incidence rates (Ii) and population (Pi) by sex and by age were collected from 14 cancer registries (Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Wuhan,Harbin,Cixian,Linzhou,Qidong,Jiashan,Fusui,Changle,Linqu,Hongkong,and Taiwan)to calculate the numbers of incident cases(Ni)according to the formula Ni=Ii·Pi. The additional combining numbers of cases from registries were used as a sample of incident cases of liver cancer, to enumerate the age-specific incidence rate, by which nationwide incident cases was estimated given by multiplying the China Fifth National Census 2000 data by the incidence rates.The incidence rate of liver cancer estimated based upon 14 cancer registries was 30.3/105,with a sex ratio (male: female) of 2.85:1.Liver cancer was ranked third (accounted for 13.13%) among all sites of cancers. The incidence rate would be 24.6/105 if the data only from China's Mainland cancer registries(Hongkong included, but Taiwan excluded).The total incident cases was estimated to be 347 000 a year by using the gross incidence, and to be 263 000 when the age-specific rates were enumerated.[Conclusions]In view of the possibility of overestimation and omission for the case-finding report, it is evaluated that the new incident cases will be 280 000 in China's Mainland,or 290 000 in whole China (range:260 000-320 000) in 2000,males 215 000, and females,75 000.