我国外汇干预机制有效性探讨

Effectiveness Analysis on China's Foreign Exchange Intervention Channel

由于制度背景的特殊性 ,我国外汇干预无法通过利率、资产组合和预期机制对汇率稳定产生倍增效应。相反 ,由于内外经济周期非一致性和干预目标过于狭窄 ,市场收益变化反而引起国内资产结构的逆向调整 ,加大了人民币失衡压力。最后 ,央行通过大规模直接干预的方式实现了人民币汇率稳定 ,却导致外汇储备过快增长。受央行资产结构和债券市场规模等因素约束 ,外汇占款投放的人民币没有被完全冲销 ,存在较大缺口 ,并对基础货币预期增长目标和内部均衡形成越来越大的冲击。因此 ,人民银行要尽快转变被动的干预方式 ,扩大汇率波动的目标区间 ;同时 ,要加强金融市场建设 ,促进政策之间的协调 ,发挥市场机制的作用 。

Monetary authorities can decrease intervention cost and keep monetary policy independent, because according to western theoretical justification, foreign exchange intervention tends to influence exchange rate through ″interest″ channel, ″portfolio balance″ channel and ″signaling″ channel. Due to its special system background, China's exchange intervention lacks market conditions to bring the foregoing channels into effect. Factually, the People's Bank keeps RMB rate stable chiefly by vast and direct intervention. In the process of economic opening, export increase and capital flow bring on durative surplus on balance of payments, which has led to the too rapid increase in foreign reserve. In order to maintain money supply moderately, the People's Bank has also taken some sterilization operations. But the sterilization magnitude has been restricted by the Central Bank's asset structure and bond market development. Inadequate sterilization has led to a remarkable internal-external economy conflict. With further analysis, we find that the reason for the conflict is mainly based on following points:Firstly, the People's Bank has paid too much attention to the nominal RMB stabilization. Under the RMB interest and capital item restriction, the current RMB rate mechanism doesn't reflect the real exchange rate equilibrium, and the People's Bank can't judge the intervention direction. In order to achieve the due target, it is obliged to absorb the surplus foreign supply passively, losing its ability of self-determination. Secondly, the current exchange intervention intention in China can't be transmitted by market channel. With China's entry into the WTO and foreign exchange account further opening, the substitution of domestic currency and foreign currency is rising. But the Central Bank's intervention and sterilization has still attached importance to monetary quantity adjustment, while neglecting harmonizing the yields of different financial assets. Although the intervention has kept the nominal RMB rate steady in recent years, the capital market yield and investors' anticipation often deviate from the objective of intervention, which has given rise to the converse portfolio balance adjustment. That is why the People's Bank has to enlarge the scale of direct intervention and bear huge financial costs. Thirdly, compared with the huge intervention magnitude, the Central Bank's re-loaning scale is limited and the re-loaning can't be taken back duly. Moreover, the domestic bond market is too small for complete sterilization. Other sterilization instruments also face various localizations. With the increase of capital flow, the sterilization gap has become larger and larger, causing the monetary policy to get into a dilemma.Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the sterilization intervention effect. For example, the People's Bank should change passive intervention operation, widen the RMB rate fluctuating range, and promote the harmony between finance market construction and policy.