新京沪铁路最优化选择——时速200公里快速轮轨

200 km Per Hour—The Best Choice for Beijing-Shanghai Express Railway

从中国 13亿人口的有效需求出发 ,汲取“铱星”通讯系统和超声速“协和”号飞机运营失败的教训 ,提出了新京沪铁路投资建设必须选择“最优化”而不是“最高速” ;在中长距离上 ,选择 8～ 12h旅行时间的“夕发朝至”列车具有最优化性价比 ;论述了中国铁路发展目标的最优化选择———时速 2 0 0km的电气化快速轮轨技术 ,符合幅员辽阔的中国现实社会经济基础发展的需要 ,符合中国的国情 ;分析了在能源危机日益深重的历史时代 ,时速 4 0 0km的“磁悬浮”和时速 30 0km的“高速轮轨”将造成国家难以承受的社会经济资源的巨大浪费和运营亏损。

This paper, proceeding from China's actual conditions, holds that in the construction of Beijing-Shanghai express railway China should choose “the optimal”instead of “the fastest”. For the long and medium distance the passenger train which “starts at sunset and arrives at daybreak” has the optimal cost performance. The paper maintains that the electrified fast-speed wheel/rail system with a speed of 200 km per hour should be the best choice for China's railway development. It accords with not only the demands of the development of real socio-economic base of China, which is vast in territory, but also the demands of the future development of China and the world as well. In the time with increasing energy crisis, the maglev train with speed of 400 km per hour and the high-speed rail system with speed of 300 km per hour will lead to the unbearable wastes of socio-economic resources and huge loss in operation.