北方农牧交错带气候变化及草地生产力的响应——以甘肃省定西县为例

The Climate Change and Grassland Productivity Response to It in the Northern Farming-Pastoral Area——Taking Dingxi County as AN Example.

根据北方农牧交错带(定西县1970～2000年)的气候资料,分析了该地区30年来气候变化周期、趋势及其草地气候生产力的变化。研究结果表明:气温呈上升而降水呈减少的态势,并且都具有7年的准周期,预计在下一个周期平均气温可能会上升到7.88℃,而降水将减少到377.7mm。在温度升高而降水不变的情景下,温度每升高1℃草地生产潜力增加96.49kg/hm2·a;相反,在降水减少而温度不变的情况下,降水每减少1mm草地生产潜力减少5.06kg/hm2·a。

According to climate data(1970～2000) in the northern farming and pastoral area,the climate change cycle,trend and grassland climate productivity about 30 years were analyzed.The results showed that temperature has a trend of increasing,precipitation has a trend of reducing and they have a cycle of 7 years.The temperature will be increased to 7.88℃ and precipitation will be reduced to 377.7mm in the next period.In the condition of increasing temperature and fixed precipitation,the grassland productivity will be increased by 96.49 kg/hm^2·a when the temperature is increased by 1℃.On the contrary,the grassland productivity will be reduced by 5.06 kg/hm^2·a when the precipitation is reduced by 1mm.