基于混沌吸引子的复杂农业系统预测模型研究

A Complex Agro-System Forecast Model Based on Chaotic Attractor

农业生产是自然再生产和经济再生产有机结合的过程,农业系统是高度耦合了自然生态、社会经济系统等的复杂大系统,具有非线性和耗散性特征。复杂农业系统要素非线性作用所表现的系统行为形成农业系统的整个演化轨迹。从长期演化来看,由于系统内部自组织作用、系统协同和外部随机扰动的作用使得农业系统出现混沌现象,故复杂系统具有长期不可预测性。本文根据复杂农业系统的预测规范,重构复杂农业系统相空间,建立了基于"混沌吸引子"的非线性混沌动力学预测模型,并以成都的相关数据进行分析验证。

Agricultural production is a process uniting natural and economic reproductions,and the agro-system is a complex system coupling natural ecological system,and social economic system,which is nonlinear and dissipative.The system behavior reflecting the nonlinear interaction of factors of the complex agro-system forms the whole evolutional locus of the system.Viewing from long term evolution ,the agro-system manifests chaotic characters due to interior self-organization and synergetic effects and exterior stochastic perturbation effects,therefore the complex system is unpredictable for a long term.According the prection standard of complex agro-system,on the basis of reconstructing the phase space of the complex agro-system,a nonlinear chaotic dynamic prediction model based on chaotic attractor is developed in this paper,and the model is analyzed and verified with the relevant data of Chendu agro-system.