决策任务的不确定性与决策能力的关系

An Analysis of the Relationship between Decision Makers' Competence and Their Uncertainty Evaluation

不确定性是影响决策行为的重要维度，但是决策者对不确定性的评价问题却没有得到系统的分析，尤其是决策者的能力与他对决策任务的不确定性高低评价之间的关系。该研究运用了“四线索二值判断”任务，分析了决策者的判断能力与其不确定性评价之间的关系，发现两者之间呈开口向上的抛物线关系，中等能力的决策者不确定性评价最低，较高和较低的能力都将使他们的不确定性评价提高。对于这种现象，作者从不确定性估计依据的多重性及其与能力的交互作用的角度进行了讨论。

As indicated by most research on behavioral decision making,uncertainty is a major determinant of decision maker's behavior and choice.But the evaluation process of uncertainty made by decision maker is still left for further explanation.Particularly,the relationship between the decision makers' competence and their subjective evaluation of uncertainty has not yet been identified.This is explored in the study using a so called “fourcues discriminant task”.A quadratic regression equation is found between the competence indexed by of signal detection technique and the uncertainty evaluation.A tentative explanation is made to suggest that two cognitive components interacting with the decision makers' competence might involve into the uncertainty evaluation process.