水库年纵向淤积形态模糊分析预报

Fuzzy Analysis and Forecast on Annual Forms of Sediment Accumulation in Reserviors

本文以15座水库、22组实测资料为分析样本,利用模糊分析方法,对22个实测资料样本进行了模糊分析及回报验证。验证表明,预报的结果与实测的淤积形态一致。此外,本文还收集了8座水库、10组实测资料对本文的预报方法及结果进行了检验,结果表明,预报的水库淤积形态与实测的淤积形态一致。由此可说明运用模糊分析方法对水库淤积形态进行分析预报是可行的,结果是可信的。

Based on the 22 group data of sedimentation for 15 reservior, the forms of sediment deposition have been analysed and forecasted by fuzzy theory in this paper. The conclusion demonstrates that the forecasted results agree well with the observed data. In addition, another 8 reserviors and 10 groups observed data have been collected and examination has been carried out by this method. The results showed that sediment forms forecasted also agree well with actual profile of sedimentation.