新疆经济增长特征与驱动力分析

Characteristics of Economic Growth and the Analysis on Driving Factors of Xinjiang

分析了新疆经济增长的特征以及影响经济增长的因素,选取可能对经济增长有影响的几个指标,通过灰色系统的关联分析法,对这些因素进行定量分析,从分析结果我们可以得出投资与消费是目前新疆经济增长的第一驱动力,科学技术是新疆未来经济增长的主要驱动力,传统要素自然资源、交通、人力资本等仍然是新疆经济增长的基础驱动力,政府行政体制的作用正在慢慢下降,城市化是经济增长潜在的驱动力,环境也越来越成为新疆经济增长的制约因素,并对这些结论进行分析,剖析新疆经济增长的内在原因,对今后新疆经济的发展有一定的理论和现实意义。

In this article, firstly, we analyze the characteristics of Xinjiang economic growth. Through the analysis we find the economy of Xinjiang increases quickly since the reformation and open, but the total level of economic development is not high. The industrial structure is reasonable gradually, the action of the second and third industry to the national economic growth strengthen increasingly. The difference of region economic growth is obvious. Two kinds of economic appearances are keep both,the market system is still not sound. Secondly, on the basis of the former economic model, we analyze the factors of Xinjiang economic growth and choose some probable influential factors. Thirdly, we choose the data of 1988～1992year and 1998～2002year the two time segments to proceed the analysis. Base on these data,we quantitative analyze these factors by relative analysis of grey system and obtain the quantificational outcome. Ate last, we analyze the outcome. From the outcome of the analysis that we can educe investment and consumption are the leading driving factors of Xinjiang economic growth,in fixed investment, the foreign capital is few, which express the foreign company lack of confidence to Xinjiang economy; in consumption, the farmer pulls is very small, is pulled by city resident primarily, which express the farmer consumption still contain very big potential. The 21st century is the century of the technology competition; technology is the central driving factor in the future. The traditional elements such as resources, transportation and manpower capital are still the basic driving factors, and will exsit a long time. The function of administration system decline slowly, the function of the market system enhances. Urban ization is the potential driving factor; the development of the city will promote economic growth consequentially. The environments are the limitative factors little by little, environment already block the economic growth and endanger the human body health, which should to cause our attention. We analyze the conclusions, and anatomize the intrinsic reasons of economic growth in Xinjiang, which have some theoretic and practical significance to the development of Xinjiang economy in the future.