新疆农业主导产业的定量选择及其分析

Quantitative Selection and Analysis on the Agricultural Leading Industries in Xinjiang

在新疆农业产业化的进程中,为了将农业资源优势转化为经济优势,需要正确地选择农业主导产业来促进新疆农业资源的优化配置和农业产业化的发展。基于相关的统计数据,运用灰色聚类法对新疆农业主导产业进行量化分析,以量化分析的结果为基础,结合新疆农业的实际情况对农业主导产业作进一步的分析。用定量与定性相结合的方法分析出现阶段新疆农业主导产业是棉花种植业、农产品加工业和林果业;农业优势产业为畜牧业和糖料种植业;农业一般产业为粮食种植业、油料种植业、水产业和家禽养殖业。

In the development of agricultural industrialization in Xinjiang, the agricultural leading industries should be selected for the optimum collocation of agricultural resources and the ideal development of agriculture industrialization. Because gray clustering is an important method in decision making when the available data are limited, based on the statistical data available, the paper analyzes how to select the agricultural leading industries with the gray clustering method, and then explains the results qualitatively. The agriculture industries in Xinjiang in the near future can be classified as follows: The agricultural leading industries will be cotton growing, industries on farm produces and planting fruits. The agricultural predominant industries will be the livestock raising and beetroot growing. The agricultural common industries will be the growing of grains and oil bearing crops as well as the poultry raising and raising of aquatic products. In agricultural leading industries, cotton growing and industries on farm produces will have the good base and development, and the planting of fruits will have some potentials in economic returns. In agricultural predominant industries, tock raising has better resources and abundant experiences, and beetroot growing has the dominance in some areas. In agricultural common industries, growing of grains has made much more contributions in the grain supply in Xinjiang.