水稻条纹叶枯病发生程度的预测模型

A STUDY ON A FORECASTING MODEL OF THE OCCURRENCE OF RICE STRIPE VIRUS DISEASE

采用正交试验方法,选用灰飞虱的带毒虫量、水稻播种期、秧苗移栽期和施肥量等因子进行大田试验。将嘉定县、宝山区试验的有关数据输入微机,按逐步回归方法统计分析,结果确认灰飞虱的带毒虫量、水稻播种期和秧苗移栽期是水稻条纹叶枯病发生程度的主要影响因子。根据1990～1991年嘉定县、宝山区试验数据,应用微机组建水稻条纹叶枯病发生程度预测模型:Y=3.9827X_1—1.2815X_2+1.1694X_3-12.2150,复相关系数R=0.9465,F=83.1335。用试验资料对预测模型进行检验,1991～1992年进行大田验证,预测模型的准确率达86.0％。

The selected factors affecting the occurrence of rice virus disease, such as percentage of viruliferous Laodelphax striatellus, amount of fertilizer applied, transplanting date and sowing time, were used in field experiments with orthogonal design in Jiading and Baoshan.The results of main factors analysis were obtained from the observed data in 1990 by stepwise regression, it was demonstrated that the main factors affecting the occurrence of rice stripe virus disease were the percentage of viruliferous Laodelphax striatellus, transplanting date and sowing time. The multiple model for predicting the occurrence of rice stripe disease made up from the observed data in 1990 and 1991 was: Y = 3. 982 7X_1-1.281 5X_2 + 1.169 4X_3-12.215 0,R = 0. 946 5,F = 83. 133 5. The occuracy of the predicting model is 86. 0％ in the test with experimental data in the fields in 1991 and 1992.