灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在中长期城市需水量预测中的应用研究

A study of information renewal GM (1,1) model for predicting urban medium and long-term water demand

研究了基于灰色系统理论的中长期城市需水量预测方法.针对常规GM(1,1)模型存在的不足,建立了灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)需水量预测模型,并利用此模型对北方某缺水城市未来10年的需水量进行了预测.结果表明:模型精度较高,预测误差较小.

A prediction method of urban medium and long-term water demand based on grey theory is studied. According to the deficiency of ordinary GM (1,1) model, an information renewal GM (1,1) predicting model of water demand is established. Moreover the model is applied to predict the water demand of a certain city that is lack of water in the next 10 years in North China. The results show that the precision of the model is comparatively higher and its prediction error is comparatively less.