中国汇率制度的现实选择及调控

Realistic Choice for China's Exchange Rate Regime Reform

本文认为,关于中国的汇率制度,建立汇率目标区机制乃是一种合乎理性的选择。汇率目标区的基准汇率应选择均衡汇率,理论上这种均衡汇率应是能同时反映一国内外部均衡的汇率。从现实看,实际有效汇率似乎是计算均衡汇率最恰当的基础。均衡汇率适用价值的大小关键体现在相对基期的选择上。事实上,基期选择的恰当与否直接影响对汇率高估而或低估的评价,从而影响汇率目标区上下限的确定乃至汇率的有效调控。

This paper suggestes that establishing a target zone of exchange rate is a rational choice for China's exchange rate regime reform. The benchmark rate of the target zone should be an equilibrium rate which can reflects both of internal and external equilibrium simultaneously. Now real effective exchange rate may become the most reasonable base for the equilibrium rate. Actually time base is the key factor to directly affect the rate and the ceiling and button of the target zone as well as the effective control of the rate.