资本深化、技术进步对中国就业效应的经验分析

Capital Deepening, Technology Progress and their Effects on China’s employment

本文主要分析在中国转型期的投资、人力资本、技术存量的变化、城市化以及产业结构变化对就业的影响。分析显示,现阶段影响中国就业的主要因素依次是工资的增加、人力资本、技术水平的提升,其他因素对就业的影响不明显。结论的现实意义是,制定符合中国资源禀赋特点的技术发展路径是减少技术进步对就业替代作用的重要措施。放松资本、劳动力要素市场的管制和加强人力资本的积累也是发挥市场化就业形成机制不可忽视的基础性因素。

We analyzed the factors that have effects on employment including investment, human capital, technology, urbanization, the structure of industries, etc.The empirical analysis reveals that wage, manpower capital and technology have important influences on employment scale, and others have less effect.The policy implieation is that China must choose the technology path that accords with resource structure and nature endowment, relaxe wage control and capital price control, and rise interests of labors to accumulate human capital.