人工神经网络在棉花烂铃病流行趋势预报中的应用

The Application of the Artificial Neural Network to Forecasting the Epidemic Trend of the Cotton Boll Rot

本文运用人工神经网络的一典型模型——“反向传播”模型,根据射阳县1980—1987年棉花烂铃病流行趋势资料,建立了烂铃病控制预报模型,经1980—1989年回报和1990—1991年预报,结果令人满意。

In this paper the back-propagation model which is one of the typical artificial neural network models was used to establish the model for forecasting the epidemic trend of the cotton ball rot based on the collected date from Sheyang county during the period of 1980 to 1987. Then by using the model the returning forecasting the trends in 1980 to 1987 and the forecasting the trends in 1988 to 1991 were carried out. The results showed that the model can well predict the trend.