系统可靠性BAYES综合分析方法

System Reliability BAYES Synthesis

基于成败型试验数据,不考虑系统或分系统的寿命分布,发展了一种适用于串并联混合系统的Bayes可靠性综合方法。将并联系统等效为串联单元,从而将串并联混合系统转化为纯串联系统。利用系统的后验分布确定各分系统的先验分布,再通过各分系统的一阶、二阶矩综合获得系统的一阶、二阶矩,在此基础上进行系统可靠性分析计算。实例分析说明了方法的有效性和实用性。

This paper develops a Bayes method for the reliability assessment of series-parallel system using success-failure data and not thinking of system or subsystem life distribution. A series-parallel system can be converted to a series system through mission transform. The posterior distribution of the reliability of the subsystem can be obtained using the system prior distribution,. The first moment and second moment of the system can be acquired by that of the subsystem. The system reliability can be analysed basing on the first moment and second moment of the system Avaliability of the method has been indicated by an analysis to an example.