生育理性和生育决策与我国低生育水平稳定机制的转变

Fertility Rationale, Fertility Decision-making, and Transition of Mechanisms in Stabilizing Low Fertility in China

自改革开放以来 ,我国人口生育率水平出现了迅速的转变 ,特别是 1 992年我国确立了市场经济为目标的经济改革以来 ,生育率水平更是进一步降低到更替水平以下。如果说 ,生育率的迅速转变是在国家计划生育政策干预下启动的 ,那么 ,在 1 990年代生育率的下降应该主要是社会和经济发展的结果。以市场经济为导向的经济改革和经济的迅速发展 ,已经为稳定我国城市地区人口低生育率水平提供了必要的经济条件 ,同时 ,制度、技术和文化等因素的变革已经为我国个人生育决策理性化创造了条件 。

Fertility transition has been very rapid since China carried out the economic reform, and fertility has dropped to below replacement level since 1992 when China directed the reform on establishing a market economy. While the rapid fertility decline was initiated by the governmental family planning program, further drops in fertility in the 1990s are more a result of socio-economic development. Market oriented reform and the subsequent rapid economic development provide necessary economic conditions for a stabilized low fertility in urban areas; at the same time, institutional, technological and cultural changes create an environment in which individuals rationalize their fertility decision making. Mechanisms in stabilizing low fertility are changing from those that are policy dominated into the ones that are self controlled.