城市化与生态环境的耦合度及其预测模型研究

Coupling Degree Model and Its Forecasting Model of Urbanization and Ecological Environment

在城市化与生态环境交互作用规律的基础上,利用协同论的观点,建立了城市化与生态环境耦合度及其预测模型.模型涉及了功效函数、耦合度函数、耦合协调度函数和城市化-生态环境耦合评价指标体系以及人工神经BP网络.根据建立的模型,结合城市化与生态环境耦合的阶段特征,将对应的耦合度值和耦合协调度值分别划分为4个评判区间,作为城市化与生态环境协调分析与预测的依据.最后,应用此模型,以徐州市为对象,对耦合度模型及其预测模型进行了实证研究.

Based on the rule of interaction between urbanization and ecological environment, coupling degree model and its forecasting model were set up by means of the synergistic theory. These models were designed with efficacy function, coupling degree function, coordination degree function, urbanization-ecological environment index system and artificial neural network BP. From the coupling stages of urbanization and ecological environment, the values of coupling degree and coordination degree were correspondingly divided into four judgment intervals as criteria of the analysis and forecast with the models. Finally, by taking Xuzhou City as a case, its coupling degree and forecasting coupling degree were investigated using the models.