用奇异谱分析作汛期降水的中期气候预测

Medium-term Climate Prediction of Rainy Season with Singular Spectrum Analysis

用奇异谱分析方法对哈尔滨汛期降水进行中期气候预测。其结果表明 ,此方法对汛期降水趋势有较好的预测能力 ,并且预报效果比较稳定 ,经 5次试报的平均准确率达 76 % ,说明奇异谱分析模式是一种有效的中期气候预测手段 ,其趋势预测结果可信度高。

Singular Spectrum Analysis(SSA) is applied to do medium-term climate prediction experiments on rainy season precipitation of Harbin.It is indicated that the tendency forecast result of the SSA model is better,more stable and more accurate.The model gives the mean skill of 76 % when applied to 5 experiments.So,the SSA model is a very useful method for medium-term climate prediction,and the tendency forecast result is worth confidence.