摘要
作者在现有文献研究的基础上,对生长曲线预测法作了进一步改进,给出了生长曲线参数估计的一种新方法。该方法将最优化方法与回归方法相结合,利用最优化理论中的区间搜索和一维搜索得到一系列α值,利用回归方法可求得与其相对应的一系列a和b的值,当α取最优值α*时,a和b便得到最优值a*和b*。示例计算表明,这种改进的预测方法具有较高的精度。
On the basis of the research results published in existing relevant references, the logistic curve method is further improved and a new method to estimate the parameters of the logistic curve is given. In this method the optimization method and the regression method are integrated, a series of values of α are obtained by interval search and one dimension search, and a series of values of parameters a and b which are corresponding to the values of α are obtained by regression method. When α reaches its optimal value, the parameters a and b will be their optimal values. The calculation results of the data from actual distribution power network show that the forecasted results by the proposed method are more accurate.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第22期36-39,共4页
Power System Technology
